How NOT to trade in Replication Markets

We have noticed some behavior in the markets that leads us to believe that some of our forecasters have missed the “market” part of the project. There are many null trades where a forecaster has submitted no change at all.

example of null trades
Three null trades on one claim. Only "bjaeger" made a forecast.

The markets are not surveys: if you don’t change the value, it doesn’t count. You have not invested in the market, you have not spent points…your trade is null.

We wonder why this is happening. 

Is it because forecasters have spent all their points? In that case, sell some shares in other claims first. You can learn more about this process in our tutorial, or read on…

Here, our demo forecaster is almost out of points…just 9!

Because of the low availability of points, the prediction scale is limited 57% to 62%. 

This forecast buys 12 shares of "Yes" in this claim

Most of the available points have been spent, so now the forecaster cannot change a forecast in any other claim.

Another claim: our forecaster cannot change the forecast (note the range of the slider is 59% to 59%)

1 Available Point is not enough to make a forecast on this claim, so the slider’s range is even further reduced.

What do you do when you run out of points?

Free up some points that you invested in other claims!

Look for claims where you have invested a lot of points already
  1. Go to “My Dashboard”
  2. Click on the “PERFORMANCE” tab
  3. In this example, the forecaster has 102 shares in Question 201 (among others).
  4. Click on “201” to visit that claim and sell shares and free up points.
Change the forecast and sell your shares.

The claim was at 67% with 102 shares of Yes. The forecaster moved the slider to 50%, sold all shares of Yes, and now has 61 available points to invest in another claim.

Moving a market to extremes gets progressively more expensive for you, and cheaper for others to oppose. In general, making more small trades beats making fewer big ones.

If others counter your trade, you retain leverage. If they follow, you can take some of your profits and invest in other claims.

(No actual claims were harmed in the creation of this blog post.)

2 thoughts on “How NOT to trade in Replication Markets”

  • Dima says:

    It’s because 1) you never explained itr all well, and 2) your user interface is confusing and unintuitive.

    • Charles Twardy says:

      Got that. We’ve moved funds around to hire a UX team to streamline. So… while you have a chance, chief squawks and suggestions? (We’ve got some good guesses and third-party feedback, but let’s hear it.) -C. Twardy (Project PI)

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