The results are in!
Replication Markets Round 4 finished on December 22, and since then we have been analyzing the results to determine the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 28 winners!
Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods are pre-registered with the Center for Open Science and will be made public at the end of the study.
The top 4 forecasters of each batch are awarded $80, $40, $20, and $20, respectively. Round 4 Surveys featured 30 batches of 10 surveys each. You will notice that quite a few of our winners earned more than $80. This happens when a forecaster is ranked in the top 4 in more than one batch.
Round 4 Winners will be notified by email at the email address registered with the username on the RM platform. Prizes must be claimed by February 3, 2020.
| unipedal | $1,200 |
| Frantisek | $1,120 |
| jc20 | $420 |
| AchinToBe | $300 |
| EirikStroemland | $280 |
| sattuma | $240 |
| BradleyJBaker | $200 |
| Poison | $140 |
| prorgan | $120 |
| Lenkafiala | $100 |
| xoph09 | $100 |
| Pavol | $80 |
| bgfarrar | $60 |
| yetAnotherTrader | $40 |
| bjaeger | $40 |
| Econ101 | $40 |
| DMS | $40 |
| hugopedder | $40 |
| sflicht | $40 |
| andi | $40 |
| radiator | $20 |
| paul_henne | $20 |
| Luthor113 | $20 |
| martin_kosiik | $20 |
| Nokta | $20 |
| hiker | $20 |
| Ilei | $20 |
| regyx | $20 |
Special note to Pavol Kaƒçm√°r, who apparently tested our unicode handling. 😉