We just gave all our forecasters 130 more points

We made a mistake when we set starting prices in Round 7, so we’re giving everyone 130 more points to help fix it.

Normally, we set a claim’s starting price based on a simple model, its p-value:

  • p < .001 starts at 80%
  • p < .01 starts at 40%,
  • p < .05 starts at 30%.

Due to a scripting error, 141 claims in Round 7 had the wrong starting price.

You may be able to take advantage of our error.

  • In previous replications, our pricing model was about 65-70% accurate. To the extent the Round 7 claims resemble those in the model, there may be some low-hanging fruit of mispriced claims.
  • Giving everyone 130 extra points should be about enough to let the market correct itself if it wants to.
  • Consider investing in the following claims.To the extent these claims are like previous claims, starting prices of our model are a good first guess. 

Some of the claims mistakenly started at 30% are still more than .05 from what should have been the starting price.

The following should have started at 80%:

2043, 2044, 2045, 2055, 2056, 2061, 2066, 2077, 2082, 2084, 2089, 2091, 2093, 2100, 2107, 2109, 2117, 2120, 2124, 2125, 2133, 2134, 2137, 2139, 2140, 2142, 2143, 2149, 2152, 2153, 2162, 2164, 2165, 2168, 2171, 2182, 2183, 2190, 2191, 2196, 2197, 2200, 2212, 2218, 2227, 2228, 2231, 2236, 2239, 2260, 2265, 2270, 2272, 2277, 2280, 2287, 2289, 2295, 2298, 2301, 2307, 2321, 2322, 2330, 2336

The following should have started at 40%:

2042, 2059, 2085, 2086, 2105, 2115, 2126, 2129, 2131, 2136, 2145, 2146, 2147, 2173, 2189, 2193, 2199, 2206, 2224, 2230, 2234, 2238, 2241, 2244, 2262, 2266, 2271, 2273, 2281, 2285, 2291, 2296, 2299, 2314, 2317, 2331, 2332, 2333, 2334

Pro Tip

Quickly access a claim by substituting its id number (as listed above) for XXXX in this url:

https://predict.replicationmarkets.com/app/market-claim/XXXX

When we enable NoiseBot and PriorBot later in the market week, PriorBot will use the correct starting prices according to our model, not the incorrect starting prices, for the claims listed above.

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