A recently registered forecaster writes:
If you have similar sentiments, read on for the response.
The market forecast is equivalent to a price… the current value/cost of a share in the “Yes” outcome.
The same basic action can be thought about, or talked about, different ways:
- “Spending points” = “trading” = “changing the market forecast”
- Or we might just call it “forecasting in the market.”
You can think about owning shares in an outcome “Yes” or “No” if that’s helpful to you.
You start each round in the markets with a fresh budget of points. Read more about it at this link.
When Replication Markets concludes, we will learn which claims actually were the subject of a replication effort. This will only occur for 5-10% of the claims available for forecasting. For these claims points/shares invested in the correct outcome will payout cash prizes (in U.S. dollars). See
the Explanation of Payouts for info on the size of those prizes.
For more info see here:
A couple of quick tips for the markets.
- Do invest all your points by spreading your bets over multiple claims. You’re likely to win more, and help our research more.
- If you bet, and then find a different claim that is, in your opinion, “more wrong,” you can withdraw points from the former claim so you can address the latter.