Announcing Round 8 Survey winners

Replication Markets Round 8 finished June 8. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 21 winners. Improbably, two forecasters had an exact tie (to the 6th decimal place) on one batch. Rather than determining a tie-breaker, we awarded each of them $20.  

Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods are pre-registered with the Center for Open Science and will be made public at the end of the study.

The top 4 forecasters of each batch are awarded $80, $40, $20, and $20, respectively. Round 8 Surveys featured 33 batches of 10 surveys each. You will notice that quite a few of our winners earned more than $80. This happens when a forecaster is ranked in the top 4 in more than one batch.

Round 8 Winners will be notified by email at the email address registered with the username on the RM platformPrizes must be claimed by August 4, 2020.

lots of US bills of varying denominations
CPM$820
unipedal$660
rm_user$620
braoi$620
Pavol$400
Poison$340
jc20$300
Frantisek$200
Nokta$200
Botilicious$200
maalsc$160
bjaeger$140
yetAnotherTrader$120
stanlaurel$120
sattuma$120
JozefBavolar$80
bmandl$80
BBalmford$40
Scalene1234$40
educatedguess$20
levent$20

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