Replication Markets Round 8 finished June 8. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 21 winners. Improbably, two forecasters had an exact tie (to the 6th decimal place) on one batch. Rather than determining a tie-breaker, we awarded each of them $20.
Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods are pre-registered with the Center for Open Science and will be made public at the end of the study.
The top 4 forecasters of each batch are awarded $80, $40, $20, and $20, respectively. Round 8 Surveys featured 33 batches of 10 surveys each. You will notice that quite a few of our winners earned more than $80. This happens when a forecaster is ranked in the top 4 in more than one batch.