Replication Markets Round 10 finished August 17. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 23 winners.
Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods are pre-registered with the Center for Open Science and will be made public at the end of the study.
The top 4 forecasters of each batch are awarded $80, $40, $20, and $20, respectively. Round 10 Surveys featured 30 batches of about 10 surveys each. You will notice that quite a few of our winners earned more than $80. This happens when a forecaster is ranked in the top 4 in more than one batch.
Round 10 Winners will be notified by email at the email address registered with the username on the RM platform. Prizes must be claimed by September 18, 2020.
| rm_user | $900 |
| unipedal | $580 |
| Botilicious | $500 |
| DavidRhysBernard | $440 |
| CPM | $400 |
| Poison | $360 |
| relihan | $200 |
| sattuma | $180 |
| Pavol | $180 |
| ALehr | $180 |
| Cory | $160 |
| Nokta | $120 |
| maalsc | $100 |
| Matho | $80 |
| DMS | $80 |
| braoi | $80 |
| BBalmford | $80 |
| Frantisek | $60 |
| Ilei | $40 |
| Scalene1234 | $40 |
| educatedguess | $40 |
| yetAnotherTrader | $20 |
| stanlaurel | $20 |
