Replication Markets Round 11 finished September 28. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 17 winners.
Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods are pre-registered with the Center for Open Science and will be made public at the end of the study.
The top 4 forecasters of each batch are awarded $80, $40, $20, and $20, respectively. Round 11 Surveys featured 10 batches of 10 surveys each. You will notice that quite a few of our winners earned more than $80. This happens when a forecaster is ranked in the top 4 in more than one batch.