Resolutions for Covid-19 Preprints

By Louisa Tran

In November of 2020, Replication Markets ran a prediction market for 400 preprints related to COVID-19. Categories included Epidemiology, Infectious Diseases, Immunology, Microbiology, and Public and Global Health. Participants had the opportunity to bid on four questions for each of the 400 preprints: Citation ranking of the preprint one year from the preprint publication date.…

Resolutions for Replication Markets!

By Louisa Tran

When Replication Markets launched in 2019, we could not have expected the global interruptions that affected our project timeline. Finally, we are ready to resolve and pay out our markets! One silver lining: in waiting to announce results, we have more resolutions to pay out. More resolutions means a larger sample size to answer the…

Update on Resolutions

By Louisa Tran

The Replication Markets team expects to begin prize announcements by 8-NOV.  We are double-checking points distribution and prize values, and will do a last check that there are no new replication results we could use. So far we have 126 forecasters who will receive prizes for Rounds 1-10. Winners will receive emails, the winners list…

Announcing Round 11 Survey Winners

By Louisa Tran

Replication Markets Round 11 finished September 28. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 17 winners. Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods…

Round 11 Markets are open!

By Louisa Tran

In this round of Markets… We continue to examine the 100 claims from the 3 preprint services of Round 11’s surveys.  For more information about Round 11’s featured topic of COVID-19, please see our blog post. Timeline for Round 11 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, August 31, 12:00 UTC until Monday, September 28,…

Round 11 Surveys are open

By Louisa Tran

Welcome to Round 11 featuring claims from research on COVID-19 In this round, we examine 100 claims from preprints selected by the Center for Open Science. For more details about these claims, see our blog post: Round 11 featuring COVID-19. In Round 11, there are 10 batches of 10 claims each. Log in to Predict…

Round 11 Informed Consent

By Louisa Tran

To participate in Round 11, all forecasters must indicate acceptance of the updated informed consent terms, chiefly that R11 will have 100 claims, of which 20-50% resolve, and will run for 5 weeks. New participants will see the updated consent form when they sign up. Everyone will see and must accept a change notice on…

Announcing Round 10 Survey winners

By Louisa Tran

Replication Markets Round 10 finished August 17. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 23 winners. Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods…

Round 10 Markets are open!

By Louisa Tran

In this round of Markets… We continue to examine the 304 claims from the 31 journals of Round 10’s surveys.  For a complete list, see our blog post. Timeline for Round 10 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, August 3, 12:00 UTC until Monday, August 17, 06:00 UTC (that’s 2am Monday US EDT). Trading…

Round 10 Surveys are open

By Louisa Tran

Welcome to Round 10! In this round, we examine 304 claims (published 2009-2018) from 31 journals:  American Journal of Sociology British Journal of Political Science Criminology Demography Evolution and Human Behavior Experimental Economics Health Psychology Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology Journal of Experimental Political Science Journal of Experimental Social Psychology Journal of Marriage and Family…

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