Round 10 Surveys are open

By Louisa Tran

Welcome to Round 10! In this round, we examine 304 claims (published 2009-2018) from 31 journals:  American Journal of Sociology British Journal of Political Science Criminology Demography Evolution and Human Behavior Experimental Economics Health Psychology Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology Journal of Experimental Political Science Journal of Experimental Social Psychology Journal of Marriage and Family…

Announcing Round 9 Survey winners

By Louisa Tran

Replication Markets Round 9 finished July 20. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 23 winners. Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined by a peer prediction method. Our calculation methods…

Announcing Round 8 Survey winners

By Louisa Tran

Replication Markets Round 8 finished June 8. The research team analyzed the data and is happy to announce 21 winners. Improbably, two forecasters had an exact tie (to the 6th decimal place) on one batch. Rather than determining a tie-breaker, we awarded each of them $20.   Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay…

Round 9 Markets are open!

By Louisa Tran

In this round of Markets… We continue to examine the 330 claims from the 22 journals of Round 9’s surveys.  For a complete list, see our blog post. Timeline for Round 9 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, July 6, 12:00 UTC until Monday, July 20, 06:00 UTC (that’s 2am Monday US EDT). Trading…

Round 9 Surveys are open

By Louisa Tran

Welcome to Round 9! In this round, we examine 330 claims (published 2009-2018) from 22 journals:  American Economic Journal: Applied Economics American Economic Review Child Development Clinical Psychological Science Computers & Education Econometrica Educational Researcher European Sociological Review Journal of Conflict Resolution Journal of Educational Psychology Journal of Financial Economics Journal of Management Journal of…

Round 8 Markets are open!

By Louisa Tran

In this round of Markets… We continue to examine the 330 claims from the 26 journals of Round 8’s surveys.  For a complete list, see our blog post. Timeline for Round 8 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, June 8, 12:00 UTC until Monday, June 22, 06:00 UTC (that’s 2am Monday US EDT). Trading…

Round 8 Surveys are open

By Louisa Tran

Welcome to Round 8! In this round, we examine 330 claims (published 2009-2018) from 26 journals:  Academy of Management Journal American Economic Journal: Applied Economics American Economic Review Child Development Clinical Psychological Science Comparative Political Studies Computers & Education Contemporary Educational Psychology Educational Researcher European Sociological Review Exceptional Children Journal of Educational Psychology Journal of…

Announcing Round 7 Survey Winners

By Louisa Tran

Replication Markets Round 7 finished May 25. Now that the Markets have closed, we can announce the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 26 winners! Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to forecasters who are closest to the truth as determined…

Bots roaming the markets…

By Louisa Tran

If you’ve made trades in Round 7 markets, you may have noticed comments like : “[automated trade]”. These indicate trades made by one of our forecaster’s own DIY autotraders. You may wonder what are the rules bots have to follow when they work for their human forecasters.  The Golden Rule for Bot Creation: Create only…

DIY Autotrader

By Louisa Tran

We introduced autotraders NoiseBot and PriorBot in Round 6 Markets to encourage forecaster activity. You, too, can create a bot to represent you in the markets! Or simply monitor your claims, report recent activity, or look for opportunities. What kind of market interaction would you like to automate? Want to get started? Clone the repo on…

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