We made a mistake when we set starting prices in Round 7, so we’re giving everyone 130 more points to help fix it. Normally, we set a claim’s starting price based on a simple model, its p-value: p < .001 starts at 80% p < .01 starts at 40%, p < .05 starts at 30%.…
In this round of Markets… We continue to examine the 330 claims from the 23 journals of Round 7’s surveys. For a complete list, see our blog post. Timeline for Round 7 Prediction markets will be available from Monday, May 11, 12:00 UTC until Monday, May 25, 06:00 UTC (that’s 11pm Sunday US EDT). Trading…
Welcome to Round 7! In this round, we examine 330 claims (published 2009-2018) from 23 journals: Academy of Management Journal American Economic Review American Educational Research Journal American Political Science Review American Sociological Review Child Development Comparative Political Studies Computers & Education Contemporary Educational Psychology Demography European Sociological Review Exceptional Children Journal of Conflict Resolution…
Replication Markets Round 6 finished April 27 after a long pause between the Surveys and the Markets. Now that the Markets have closed, we can announce the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 29 winners! Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay out according to ground truth, we award prizes each Round to…
Meet the automated traders: Noise Bot and Prior Bot Two forecasters will make their debut trades in Replication Markets on Friday, April 17: Noise Bot and Prior Bot. These automated traders will wander around the market and make trades based on their algorithms. If you see one of them making trades on a claim in…
Revised results After an internal audit, we discovered an error in the reporting process for Round 5 Survey winners: while the winning forecasters remain the same, the reported values were incorrect. Many thanks to a sharp-eyed forecaster (@AlvaroDeMenard) who noticed lack of correlation between the Round 5 Surveys leaderboard and the reported value of awards. …
We anticipate Round 6 Markets to open on Monday, February 17, pending approval from our Institutional Review Board (IRB). Due to the changes in SCORE’s definition of “replication,” (see our blog post), more claims will resolve. This necessitates a change in our prize structure and approval by the (IRB). The new prize structure is described in…
Welcome to Round 6! In this round, we examine claims (published 2009-2018) from the following journals: 1. Academy of Management Journal 2. American Economic Review 3. American Educational Research Journal 4. Cognition 5. Comparative Political Studies 6. Demography 7. European Journal of Personality 8. Evolution and Human Behavior 9. Exceptional Children 10. Health Psychology 11.…
The awards reported below are INCORRECT, due to a processing error. The correct values are reported here. Replication Markets Round 5 finished on January 26, and since then we have been analyzing the results to determine the most accurate forecasters for the Surveys. We have 37 winners! Because the markets will take nearly a year to pay…
Lenka Fiala is a busy woman: she is a full time Ph.D student at Tilburg University, she is a successful forecaster with Replication Markets, and she stays active through circus disciplines. We interviewed Lenka by Skype about her experience in our project. Tell us a little about yourself and your academic interests and why you…
