Replication Markets recently estimated replication probabilities for 100 COVID-19 studies from the social and behavioral sciences. We don’t have all the results yet, but let’s see what our forecasters thought. (Note: We just launched another COVID-19 project, we hope you’ll sign-up to participate or learn more). Reviewing our Previous COVID-19 Forecasts Big picture ~75% of…
A recently registered forecaster writes: I have a hard time understanding how the markets actually function, i.e. how to spend points, how to gain points, how the payout is calculated. So basically I can click the button to trade, but I don’t have a detailed understanding what it means to trade. If you have similar…
The shorter version: Market leaderboards show the expected value of your Round portfolio, in points (฿). They refresh every few hours. If the market is accurate, they will roughly predict prizes. Survey leaderboards sum your rank score for each batch in that Round. Rank score is just inverted rank: 1 is the worst. Survey prizes…
