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Each round has both surveys and markets on the same base claims. Markets pay more, later, while surveys pay less, sooner. Markets pay out proportionally to winning shares. Surveys pay fixed amounts to top ranks in each batch. (They are also different forecasting methods, and we will be comparing strengths and weaknesses.)
Markets pay based on actual outcome once known, and so are worth more. We will not know which claims resolve until DARPA reveals them, probably mid-2020 by 30 November 2020.
Surveys pay each round, using a peer prediction mechanism with bias correction to rank each participant for each of their forecasts. These peer prediction scores are computed based on
With high probability, the top rankings will track ground truth. But we won’t know until the contest ends. Therefore these are worth less.
Details in the rules, and summarized below.
We expect about 50 claims to resolve from Rounds 1-5 (only direct replications count).
We expect about 125 claims to resolve from Rounds 6-10 (any replication counts). These Markets pay more per round and less per claim:
* Explanation of Payouts for Rounds 6-10 amended on 2/10/2020; updated 10 July 2020.
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