About Replication Markets

Origins

Replication Markets began as part of the DARPA SCORE program to assign confidence scores to social & behavioral science claims. (See also this Wired Article.)

Through the life of the project, our forecasters reviewed over 3,000 research claims from the social and behavioral sciences. 

Insights

We deliver insights into the reliability of research.

These insights include:

  • What is the overall replication rate?
  • How does the replication rate vary by
    • field/discipline
    • research design
    • publication practices
    • definition of replication
  • What types of research claims are being made?
  • What types of research can be replicated, and at what cost?

Accuracy

We aim for more than 80% accuracy of predictions.

Our past markets have averaged ~75% accuracy. Our work appears on the Science Prediction Market Project page, and published in Science, PNAS, and Royal Society Open Science.  

There is NO COST to participate in Replication Markets.

This research is supported (in part) by the Fetzer Franklin Fund of the John E. Fetzer Memorial Trust. It uses a platform developed for DARPA SCORE, and some staff are supported by SCORE while working on this. We are grateful for their support.