Replication Markets’ New Experiment: Evaluating COVID-19 Preprints

Replication Markets (RM) invites citizen scientists to make forecasts about COVID-19 preprints that have been discussed on social media…. [LINK]

October 15, 2020

Will COVID-19 studies replicate?

Replication Markets recently estimated replication probabilities for 100 COVID-19 studies from the social and behavioral sciences. We don’t have all the results yet, but let’s see what our forecasters thought. …. [LINK]

November 1, 2020

Nearly Sure-Thing Markets

Preprint Forecasters: Hey! We know you’re busy, but did you know dozens of you are leaving free prizes on the table? …. [LINK]

November 16, 2020

Multichoice “Publication” Markets

On our COVID-19 preprint market, each preprint has 4 associated questions: 1 on Citations, and 3 linked Publication questions… [LINK]

October 19, 2020

Q&A about our questions

One of our forecasters wrote in with quesitons, and we figured that others would appreciate the answers. …. [LINK]

November 11, 2020

Preprints Survey Winners

Replication Markets COVID-19 Preprints markets closed today, November 20, and we are pleased to announce the winners of the survey predictions.. …. [LINK]

November 20, 2020

Getting a MultiChoice Forecast Just Right

This example is just to give you a feel for linked multi-choice questions…


October 20, 2020

Markets relaunch and things to know

Good news! The markets reopened today (11/12) around 12:00 UTC.

Better news – you should have exactly as many points as you did before!


November 12, 2020


Some eye candy summarizing market movements for the Citation and the No Publication markets.


November 24, 2020

There is NO COST to participate in Replication Markets.

This research is supported (in part) by the Fetzer Franklin Fund of the John E. Fetzer Memorial Trust. It uses a platform developed for DARPA SCORE, and some staff are supported by SCORE while working on this. We are grateful for their support.

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