Preprint Forecasters: Hey! We know you’re busy, but did you know dozens of you are leaving free prizes on the table?
So… our oversight, there are 100 nearly sure-thing markets because these preprints have already been published! But because only 15-30 people have been active, the publication markets for about 80 of these still give more than a 10% chance of “No publication”.
If you do nothing else, fixing those will (a) give you a share of the prizes, and (b) improve the accuracy of the whole market.
Stop by today and correct the markets!
OK, you’re short on time and new to markets. Here’s an easy strategy (not optimal, but okay):
There is NO COST to participate in Replication Markets.
This research is supported (in part) by the Fetzer Franklin Fund of the John E. Fetzer Memorial Trust. It uses a platform developed for DARPA SCORE, and some staff are supported by SCORE while working on this. We are grateful for their support.