Calendar of Rounds: Survey and Market Schedule

Surveys open February 3, 12:00 UTC

Surveys close February 9, 23:59 UTC

Markets open February 17, 12:00 UTC

Markets close March 1, 23:59 UTC

Bonus week: 

Revisit Round 0 Markets

Markets open March 2, 12:00 UTC

Markets close March 8, 23:59 UTC

Surveys open March 9, 12:00 UTC

Surveys close March 15, 23:59 UTC

Markets open March 16, 12:00 UTC

Markets close March 29, 23:59 UTC

Claims TBD

Markets open May 4, 12:00 UTC

Markets close May 10, 23:59 UTC

Surveys open April 6, 12:00 UTC

Surveys close April 12, 23:59 UTC

Markets open April 13, 12:00 UTC

Markets close April 26, 23:59 UTC

Surveys open May 11, 12:00 UTC

Surveys close May 17, 23:59 UTC

Markets open May 18, 12:00 UTC

Markets close May 31, 23:59 UTC

Surveys open June 8 12:00 UTC

Surveys close June 14, 23:59 UTC

Markets open June 15, 12:00 UTC

Markets close June 28, 23:59 UTC

Surveys open September 9, 12:00 UTC

Surveys close September 15, 23:59 UTC

Markets open September 16, 12:00 UTC

Markets close September 29, 23:59 UTC

Surveys open October 7, 12:00 UTC

Surveys close October 13, 23:59 UTC

Markets open October 14, 12:00 UTC

Markets close October 27, 23:59 UTC

Surveys open November 4, 12:00 UTC

Surveys close November 10, 23:59 UTC

Markets open November 11, 12:00 UTC

Markets close November 24, 23:59 UTC

Surveys open December 2, 12:00 UTC

Surveys close December 8, 23:59 UTC

Markets open December 9, 12:00 UTC

Markets close December 22, 23:59 UTC

 

Surveys open January 6, 12:00 UTC

Surveys close January 12, 23:59 UTC

Markets open January 13, 12:00 UTC

Markets close January 26, 23:59 UTC

The RM project is structured in Rounds of Surveys followed by Markets. Each round features claims published in various behavioral and social science journals during 2009-2018.

During a Round’s Survey week, forecasters provide their individual assessments of the replication potential of that round’s claims. These responses establish the baseline for the crowdsourced opinion.

During a Round’s Market weeks, forecasters collectively decide on the replication probability of the same claims considered during Survey week. We then compare the market results to the survey results.

Survey responses inform the data we collect from the markets. For our research purposes, we need forecasters to use both methods. As an incentive to complete surveys, we offer $4800 to be distributed among top forecasters of each round of Surveys. 

Specifically during a Survey week,

  • claims are split into batches of 9-10 claims each.
  • each batch will award $80 to the top forecaster, $40 to the second place forecaster, and $20 each to third and fourth place.
  • the more batches you complete, the more money you are eligible to win.

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